U.S. Stock Market Recap – July 8, 2025 & What to Watch on July 9
Disclaimer: The following is not investment advice. It is personal research used solely for my own informational and analytical purposes. All content, data, and assessments included may contain errors, omissions, or inaccuracies, and are subject to change without notice. This material should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
📊 Markets Recap: Tuesday, July 8 – Markets Catch Their Breath
U.S. markets stabilized following Monday’s sell-off, driven by fresh tariff threats. Major indexes showed mixed results:
Dow Jones: –0.37% to 44,240.76
S&P 500: –0.07% to 6,225.52
Nasdaq Composite: +0.03% to 20,418.46
Russell 2000: +0.66%
TL;DR
U.S. President Trump expanded tariff threats: 25% on imports from Japan, South Korea, and others starting Aug 1, plus a 50% tariff on copper and looming levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Markets paused, awaiting clarity: S&P 500 and Nasdaq held firm, while small-caps outperformed.
Treasury yields and currencies showed volatility — U.S. yields ticked up, yen hit multi‑week lows.
🔧 Key Drivers
1. Trade Policy in Limbo
Trump issued letters to 14 nations (including Japan and South Korea) detailing steep tariffs set for August 1, with tariff ranges from 25–40% and an extra 10% on BRICS-friendly countries. He also announced a 50% tariff on copper, plus impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
2. Markets Hold Steady
Tuesday’s session featured tight trading ranges: the S&P 500, after Monday’s slide, only edged down ~0.07%, and the Nasdaq managed a slight gain. Energy and defensive stocks showed relative strength.
3. Currency & Commodity Ripples
Yen weakened sharply, while the South Korean won gained as Seoul ramps up negotiations. Copper prices jumped on the 50% tariff news.
4. Volatility Still Measured
Despite policy shocks, volatility indicators remained moderate. The VIX edged up only slightly, markets showing disciplined response.
🔮 What to Watch on Wednesday, July 9
Tariff Risk – Will the administration release detailed tariff schedules or engage in negotiation letters? Any clarity by today could spark fresh market moves.
Federal Reserve Minutes – June FOMC minutes drop, potentially influencing rate-cut expectations.
Treasury Yield – With the 10‑year yield drifting above ~4.38%, sectors like financials or REITs remain sensitive.
Copper & Resources – After a steep 50% tariff on copper, miners and commodity ETFs could see significant price reactions.
Earnings Kickoff – Q2 earnings season begins mid‑July. Tech, industrials, and financials under focus amid tariff backdrop.
📈 Equity Focus Areas
Large‑Cap Tech & AI: Resilient post-dip; fundamentals remain solid ahead of earnings.
Industrials & Materials: Materials like copper miners saw boosts; global industrials may lag amid trade risk.
Financials: Watch yields and Fed cues—rising rates help banks, but dovish tones could dampen prospects.
Resources & Commodities: Copper tariffs introduce new dynamics; energy also tracks geopolitical and policy signals.
🧭 Final Thoughts
July 8 showed “healthy consolidation”—markets are digesting a barrage of tariff news and newsroom updates. The tone remains calm. But clarity—or escalation—on trade policy, plus Fed insights, will shape the near-term outlook. The week ahead may provide direction for the next market phase.